Evidence ingestion
Future backend agents read papers, benchmark reports, expert forecasts, and capability evaluations.
AI progress forecast model
AGI Forecast
Until AGI compares operational definitions, public forecasts, expert surveys, technical bottlenecks, and personal assumptions.
Selected threshold
Public general AI
A publicly announced general system that can transfer learning across domains and complete unfamiliar digital tasks.
Operational threshold
2026
2125
10%
50%
90%
Evidence weights
Median: 2032
Public evidence base
Forecast inputs
Survey medians, public forecast markets, capability data, infrastructure constraints and governance constraints are tracked separately.
Belief check
Your forecast inputs
Enter median years by threshold, then record the bottleneck and evidence that would change your view.
Evolving system
Model update plan
Model council
Different predictive models can disagree, update, and expose which assumptions drive the difference.
User belief maps
Questionnaire answers can become personal model profiles, saved over time and compared with evidence updates.